I'm working with a panel dataset (24 months of data for 210 DMAs). I'm trying to optimize the adstock decay factor for an independent variable by minimizing the standard error of a fixed effects model.
In this particular case, I want to get a decay factor that minimizes the SE of the adstock-transformed variable "SEM_Br_act_norm" in the model "Mkt_TRx_norm = b0 + b1*Mkt_TRx_norm_prev + b2*SEM+Br_act_norm_adstock".
So far, I've loaded the dataset in panel formal using plm and created a function to generate the adstock values. The function also runs a fixed effects model on the adstock values and returns the SE. I then use optimize() to find the best decay value within the bounds (0,1). While my code is returning an optimal value, I am worried something is wrong because it returns the same optimum (close to 1) on all other variables.
I've attached a sample of my data, as well as key parts of my code. I'd greatly appreciate if someone could take a look and see what is wrong.
# Set panel data structure
alldata <- plm.data (alldata, index = c("DMA", "Month_Num"))
alldata$var <- alldata$SEM_Br_act_norm +0
# Create 1 month time lag for TRx
alldata <- ddply(
alldata, .(DMA), transform,
# This assumes that the data is sorted
Mkt_TRx_norm_prev = c(NA,Mkt_TRx_norm[-length(Mkt_TRx_norm)])
)
# Create adstock function and obtain SE of regression
adstockreg <-function(decay, period, data_vector, pool_vector=0){
data_vector <-alldata$var
pool_vector <- alldata$DMA
data2<-data_vector
l<-length(data_vector)
#if no pool apply zero to vector
if(length(pool_vector)==1)pool_vector<-rep(0,l)
#outer loop: extract data to decay from observation i
for( i in 1:l){
x<-data_vector[i]
#inner loop: apply decay onto following observations after i
for(j in 1:min(period,l)){
#constrain decay to same pool (if data is pooled)
if( pool_vector[i]==pool_vector[min(i+j,l)]){data2[(i+j)]<- data2[(i+j)]+(x*(decay)^j)}
}
}
#reduce length of edited data to equal length of initial data
data2<-data2[1:l]
#regression - excludes NA values
alldata <- plm.data (alldata, index = c("DMA", "Month_Num"))
var_fe <- plm(alldata$Mkt_TRx_norm ~ alldata$Mkt_TRx_norm_prev + data2, data = alldata , model = "within", na.action = na.exclude)
se <- summary(var_fe)$coefficients["data2","Std. Error"]
return(se)
}
# Optimize decay for adstock variable
result <- optimize(adstockreg, interval=c(0,1), period = 6)
print(result)